Colorado University Athletics
Friday's Fast Five: Keys For Buffs Vs. Arizona
November 11, 2016 | Football, Neill Woelk
TUCSON, Ariz. — For the second week in a row, the Colorado Buffaloes find themselves in relatively new territory: solid favorites in a Pac-12 game, and this one on the road.
Saturday's game at Arizona (8 p.m., FS1) will be just the latest in a series of games for the Buffs that has seen recent years' script flipped.
This season, it's the Buffs (No. 16 AP, No. 12 CFP) who find themselves in the position of the hunted, owners of a 7-2 record and atop the Pac-12 South with a 5-1 conference mark.
The 2-7 Wildcats (0-6 Pac-12), meanwhile, find themselves in the role of spoiler. Losers of six straight, the 'Cats will miss a bowl game this season for just the second time in nine years, leaving the chance to record an upset win Saturday as their prime motivation.
As also has been the case regularly for the Buffs this season, this will be another opportunity to end a lengthy losing streak to a conference foe. Although the Buffs own a 13-5 all-time edge in the series, including an 8-2 mark in Tucson, the Wildcats have won the last four, including the last two in Arizona Stadium.
Colorado's last win in the series came in CU's initial season in the Pac-12, when the Buffs stung the Wildcats, 48-29.
None of the players on CU's current roster, however, were around for that affair. But most of them were in Boulder a year ago when Arizona scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to take erase a 24-17 deficit and eventually collect a 38-31 win.
Now, the Buffs have a chance to end that 0-4 skid vs. the 'Cats and at the same time, win their fourth straight game — something Colorado hasn't done since 2002.
What they'll have to do to accomplish the goal:
1. Win the turnover battle. This is usually a quite obvious key to any game, but this year, it's been an interesting paradox for CU.
In both of their losses this year, Colorado won the turnover battle: 1-0 vs. Michigan and 4-1 vs. Southern California. But in three of the Buffs' victories, they've lost the turnover battle: 2-1 vs. Oregon, 2-1 vs. Arizona State and 4-1 vs. UCLA.
It's not a trend they want to test, especially against Arizona. It's no coincidence the Wildcats have forced just one total turnover in their last five games and two in their last six and lost all six. Rich Rodriguez's Arizona teams are 20-2 when they win the turnover battle and 10-6 when they at least tie in that category. When Arizona forces at least two turnovers, Rodriguez's teams are 24-4.
It's why the Buffs need to take care of the ball Saturday. They can't afford to give Arizona any extra momentum or confidence, particularly at home. This is a game the Buffs should win if they play well and don't make mistakes — and eliminating turnovers is a great place to start.
2. Get the passing game back on track. Colorado's offense has accounted for just 23 points combined in its last two games, a far cry from early in the season, when CU scored at least 28 in its first five games (and at least 41 in four of the first five).
A big part of that has been a passing game that's struggled. CU had just 135 yards passing in the win over Stanford and only 160 in the air in the win against UCLA.
The Wildcats appear to be a team against whom the Buffs can get their offensive groove back. Arizona is 117th in the nation in scoring defense, 117th in total defense and 111th in pass defense. The 'Cats have also given up at least 34 points in all six of their Pac-12 games, including a 69-7 drubbing last week at Washington State.
Not that the Buffs can simply show up, flip a switch and expect to put big numbers on the board. Give the Wildcats an opening on defense and they are still talented enough to take advantage and make it a long night for Colorado.
3. Stop the run. Simply put, the Wildcats don't have a passing game, but they have managed to manufacture a run game (37th in the nation, 210 yards per game).
Their leading rusher is quarterback Brandon Dawkins, who despite being banged up for much of the season, has run for 597 yards and eight touchdowns. A year ago, a running quarterback brought the Wildcats back from behind to produce a win in Boulder; the Buffs don't want a similar scenario to unfold Saturday.
The good news is the Wildcats are down to what amounts to their fifth-string running back, Samajie Grant, a converted wide receiver. He was their leading rusher last week with 77 yards on eight carries.
The Buffs need to force the Wildcats to the air early. UA is averaging barely 190 yards per game passing, with Dawkins throwing for 1,058 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions. Anu Solomon — who may be healthy enough this week to play — has 332 yards passing, one touchdown and two interceptions. The 'Cats have some capable receivers, but nothing the Buffs haven't already seen and contained.
Forcing the Wildcats into the air would play right into the Buffs' hands. If the offense can produce some early scores and the defense can shut down the running game, the Buffs will accomplish that.
4. Continue special teams improvement. This is important not only for this week, but for weeks to come.
The Buffs' kicking game — particularly in the field goal department — is still dicey. Davis Price is healthy and could kick this week; if not, Colorado needs to see more improvement from Chris Graham.
Either way, the Buffs have to build some confidence in this department before they hit their last two regular season games, both of which could have a big impact on the Pac-12 South race.
Meanwhile, Colorado's return game continues to improve and the coverage has been solid. The Buffs need to keep it that way.
5. Improve red zone/reduce penalties. One way not to reduce worry about the field goal game is score touchdowns in the red zone.
It's an area that's been a sore spot the last couple of weeks. Overall, CU has 36 scores in trips inside an opponent's 20-yard line, but 11 of those are field goals. In the last two games, CU has five scores in eight red zone trips — and three of those are field goals.
Those are opportunities the Buffs need to take full advantage of.
As for penalties, it goes with the red zone because the Buffs have had at least two touchdown opportunities in the last two games turned away by penalties. Before the UCLA game, Colorado was the least-penalized team in the Pac-12 in terms of yards per game; now CU has dropped to fourth in that category.
It's not an area to be overly worried about yet — but if the issue rears its head again Saturday, it then becomes a concern.
Overall, the Buffs can't afford to take this game lightly. This is one they need to be at their best for and take care of business.
Do that, and they'll take some momentum into next week's game at home against Washington State and be one step closer to their goal of a Pac-12 championship.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
