Fast Five: Buffs' Keys Vs. Oklahoma State In Alamo Bowl
December 28, 2016 | Football, Neill Woelk
SAN ANTONIO — By the time Colorado and Oklahoma State kick it off Thursday in the Valero Alamo Bowl (7 p.m., ESPN), it will have been nearly a month since both teams played a game.
Both would like to replace the memory of their last game with happier thoughts. The No. 10 Buffs are coming off a disappointing 41-10 loss to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game; the No. 12 Cowboys dropped a 38-20 decision to Oklahoma in what amounted to a Big 12 title game in their last outing.
It's a contest that should no doubt provide plenty of interesting matchups, beginning with CU's standout secondary pitted against a potent OSU passing attack. But there are other key areas, including Colorado's run game against the Cowboys' defense and the always-important special teams matchups.
What the Buffs must do Thursday to collect their first bowl win since 2004:
1. Stop the run. This may seem a bit counterintuitive, given OSU's statistics. Behind quarterback Mason Rudolph (3,777 yards, 25 touchdowns) and wide receiver James Washington (62 catches, 1,209 yards, 9 TDs), the Cowboys had the nation's ninth-ranked passing offense, averaging 322.8 yards per game. OSU's run game, meanwhile, was just 75th in the nation, averaging 169.3 yards per contest.
But if the Buffs can force the Cowboys to the air, they like their chances, even against the Cowboys.
Teams that caused the Buffs the most trouble this year — Michigan, USC and Washington — all had balanced offenses. Washington was the only team to successfully line up and run the ball consistently at the heart of CU's defense and Colorado coaches are expecting the Cowboys to attempt to do the same.
The Cowboys have a pair of very capable backs, beginning with Freshman All-American Justice Hill, who ran for 1,042 yards and five touchdowns this year while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Hill isn't big — 5-foot-10, 170 pounds — but senior 6-1, 215-pound senior Chris Carson comes in an offers a powerful punch in that regard, as he finished with 498 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.
It's exactly the type of tandem that Washington used to wear down the Buffs in the Pac-12 title game, and it's something the Buffs want to make sure doesn't happen Thursday.
If the Buffs can force OSU to the air, they'll be in good position to control the tempo and turn it into their type of game.
2. Establish the run early. While Colorado had plenty of success throwing the ball this year — five Buffs caught at least 30 passes — they won big games by taking control early with their run game.
The Cowboys have proven susceptible to the run. OSU finished 91st in the nation in run defense, giving up an average of 204.4 yards per game. In their loss to Oklahoma, the Cowboys gave up 341 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Colorado finished the year averaging 191.9 yards per game on the ground. But even more telling is this: in games in which the Buffs rushed for at least 100 yards, they were a perfect 10-0. When held to less than 100 yards on the ground, they were 0-3. When Colorado gets Phillip Lindsay in a rhythm early, it causes problems for defenses. Lindsay has been an excellent second-level runner this year, a place the Cowboys have struggled.
A successful CU running game also opens to the door to the passing game. If the Buffs can establish the ground game early, they'll force to the Cowboys to stack the box — which will open the door for quarterback Sefo Liufau to get the ball to his receivers in space. When that happens, it's usually a good sign for the Buffs.
3. Take care of the ball. The Buffs had their streak of consecutive games with at least one defensive takeaway halted at 25 in the Washington game. We're willing to be they'll begin a new streak against the Cowboys, even though OSU turned the ball over just 14 times this year (18th-best in the nation).
But even more importantly, the Buffs have to make sure they don't give the Cowboys any "extra" possessions. OSU was 10th in the nation in turnover margin (plus-10 for the season) and the Cowboys were outstanding in converting those turnovers into points. OSU had four interception or fumble returns of more than 20 yards and they converted every one of those into a score.
Those are the kind of momentum-switching events the Buffs have to avoid.
4. Don't allow big plays on special teams. While everyone remembers the special teams miscues that paved the way for Michigan's win early in the season, the Buffs have been much better since then in that department.
The Cowboys, though, blocked six kicks this year, including a nation-leading four by 6-foot-3, 310-pound defensive lineman Vincent Taylor. The OSU junior is also a standout defensive player, and CU head coach Mike MacIntyre said the Buffs will be sure to know where Taylor is lined up whenever he's on the field.
5. Make the moment count. Every team wants to finish the season on a high note. Every group of seniors wants to win their final game.
But given what the Buffs accomplished this season and given what's still at stake, the Buffs have no lack of motivation. An 11th win, a top-10 finish and CU's first bowl win since 2004 are just a few of the things at stake.
But equally important — at least to CU's seniors — is finishing what they started. They opened the season with the goal of establishing a legacy that would leave their imprint on the program long after they have gone.
To a large degree, they have already done that. A 10-win season, a Pac-12 South title and one of the most dramatic turnarounds by any program in recent years have made this bunch a team to remember.
But CU's seniors also know that one more win would help them move from a memorable team to an unforgettable one.
When they walk off the field as Buffs for the last time, there's no doubt they would like to have that designation in their pockets.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
