Fast Five: Keys For Buffs At Washington State
October 20, 2017 | Football, Neill Woelk
PULLMAN, Wash. — If "blueprints" were easy to follow in college football, the 4-3 Colorado Buffaloes (1-3 Pac-12) would have no problem stopping Washington State (6-1, 3-1) and quarterback Luke Falk on Saturday.
The Buffs would simply replicate what Cal did a week ago in a 37-3 win over the previously unbeaten Cougars. The Bears sacked WSU's Falk nine times, intercepted him five times and also forced two fumbles (one by Falk, which the Bears returned for a touchdown).
But that's not how the game works.
For starters, it's hard to imagine Falk, who is eighth in the nation in passing yards per game (326.6) and tied for third in touchdown passes (19), enduring another night like he had last week in terms of interceptions. The WSU senior had thrown just two interceptions in the first six games, and at least a couple of those miscues in last week's game were tipped balls or drops (not all Falk's fault).
Meanwhile, the majority of the sacks came as the Cougars were falling farther and farther behind, forcing Falk into obvious passing situations and allowing the Bears to simply tee off on the WSU quarterback.
Still, there's no doubt the Buffs' defense wants to make life as tough as possible on Falk in their Saturday meeting at Martin Stadium (8:45 p.m, ESPN).
Thus, our weekly Fast Five keys for a Buffs win:
1. Stop WSU's run game. Wait — after all this talk about one of the nation's premier quarterbacks, why are we talking about the run game?
Good question — and the answer includes Colorado's run defense and the weather.
While CU's pass defense has been solid this year (fifth in the conference in passing yards allowed and third in TD passes allowed), the run defense has struggled over the last two weeks. It would thus be no surprise if the Cougars came out and tested the Buffs early up front. WSU's run game is last in the conference, averaging just 74.1 yards per game, but if the Cougars can get any kind of run game going early, it will make life tougher on CU's pass defenders.
As for the weather, the forecast is dismal bordering on downright ugly. The latest predictions call for temperatures in the 40s at kickoff, with a 100 percent chance of rain and winds gusting up to 40 miles per hour. Those are not conditions conducive to a passing game, another reason the Cougars might attempt to rev up their run game early.
But — if the Buffs can stop that run game, it will not only force the Cougars to throw, but could produce some second- and third-and-long situations. That means Falk has to stay in the pocket longer to allow his pass routes to develop, which enhances Colorado's chances of getting to him and sacking him, or at least disrupting his throws.
2. Get Phillip Lindsay going downhill early. Yes, this is straight from the Book of Capt. Obvious, but it doesn't make it any less important.
Lindsay has been a beast the last couple of weeks, rushing for 466 yards and five touchdowns on 69 carries. He's been a mainstay in every long Colorado scoring drive this year — and the Buffs would love to crank out a few more of those double-digit plays, 80-plus yard marches this weekend.
Those drives accomplish two things: one, they amount to what are body blows to a defense. There might not be a big knockout punch, but they take their toll over the long haul.
Two, they keep the opposing offense off the field — and in this case, if the Buffs can force WSU to play from behind, it will give Colorado's defense a chance to get to Falk and cause some problems.
3. Win the third-down battle. Washington's defense has been exceptional on third down this season, allowing opponents to convert just 27 of 98 tries (a league-best 28 percent). The Buffs, meanwhile, have been good on third downs offensively (49-for-107) but below average defensively (42-for-107).
The Buffs need to extend every drive possible, which means getting into third-and-short situations, which then allows CU the luxury of either turning to Lindsay or getting off a quick pass. On third-and-four or less, the Buffs are 32-of-45. After that, the success percentage drops precipitously — and it's the same story defensively. Force the Cougars into third-and-long and the Buffs' chances of stopping the drive increase dramatically.
4. Prevent WSU from loading the box on defense. In other words, the Buffs have to be effective early with their passing game. That doesn't mean they have to hit the deep ball (although that would be nice), but it does mean quarterback Steven Montez needs to be on target early and get the ball to his receivers when they have some room to run.
Colorado's offense has been plenty productive over the last couple of weeks, but it's taken a couple of quarters (or more) to get untracked. A quick start Saturday would go a long way in establishing some tempo and rhythm and prevent the Cougars from building any kind of momentum early.
5. Avoid special teams gaffes/win turnover battle. Always important, these two areas will be magnified simply because the chances for miscues will be enhanced by the wet conditions.
On special teams, it means extra care by punt and kick returners and supreme concentration from snappers, holders and punters. The key won't be as much producing big plays by special teams as it will be avoiding negative momentum plays.
As for turnovers, the Buffs have now gone a record 13 straight quarters without an offensive turnover, dating back to the third quarter of the Washington game. That means they haven't given the opponent any extra possessions in that stretch.
That's important, especially against an offense with the quick-strike capability of Washington State. Giving Falk and his offense any extra chances with the ball is tempting fate, something the Buffs don't want to do, especially on the road.
The flip side, of course, is that the Buffs need to produce a few defensive takeaways. The Buffs have had at least one in every game this season, with an interception last week providing a big momentum shift in a win over Oregon State.
Clearly, the Cougars are susceptible to turning the ball over. Weather conditions will no doubt enhance the possibility (for both teams). If the Buffs can win the turnover battle, they'll be in the game down the stretch.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
