Woelk: Late Season Offense Review
November 16, 2017 | Football, Neill Woelk
BOULDER — Bye weeks are usually a good time to provide a midseason assessment of a team's progress while keeping one eye on the remainder of the season.
But because the Colorado Buffaloes' bye week has arrived so late in the season — CU has just one regular season game remaining — we'll adjust the format slightly by taking a look at what we've seen this year, and in some instances what that might mean for 2018.
Today, the offense:
Overview: When the season began, hopes were high for the Colorado offense. The group featured returning starters at four of the five line positions, all four wide receivers and running back. The only two "newcomers" were quarterback Steven Montez and center Jonathan Huckins, both of whom had starting experience under the belts.
But … sometimes things just don't turn out as planned. The O-line struggled to find consistency and the connection between Montez and the receivers wasn't as seamless as most (including the coaching staff) thought it would be.
Thus, the numbers didn't quite hit the preseason projections, even though in many categories, CU's overall numbers are better than those of 2016.
Offensive line: The year began with a two-game suspension of left tackle and team captain Jeromy Irwin, leading to a season in which consistency has never really materialized over a significant stretch.
Injuries played a major role in that regard. The Buffs have started six different O-line combinations in 11 games, not a trend that lends itself to consistency, particularly with a position group that demands synchronized movement by five players.
Probably the most surprising result came in pass protection. A year ago, Colorado yielded 31 quarterback sacks in 14 games; this year the Buffs have hit that number after just 11 games. The sacks have also come in bunches — Colorado State, Washington, Arizona and Arizona State all recorded at least four sacks against Colorado.
There have been, however, some solid performances. The Buffs have rushed for at least 190 yards on five occasions, helping Phillip Lindsay become one of the program's most productive rushers in history; and over the last three games, they've helped Montez surpass the 300-yard mark each week, a program first.
CU will lose three regular starters — Irwin, Huckins and guard Gerrad Kough. But returning will be tackles Isaac Miller and Josh Kaiser, guard/tackle Aaron Haigler and guard Tim Lynott Jr. (although Lynott will miss spring ball with an Achilles tear). All gained significant experience this year.
Meanwhile, a group of youngsters could be ready to bring some athleticism to the table, beginning with converted D-lineman Brett Tonz, who got some playing time this year and has improved steadily. Redshirt and true freshmen who have been impressive include Colby Pursell, Grant Polley, Jacob Moretti, Chance Lytle, Hunter Vaughn and William Sherman.
The Buffs will be young in 2018, but it might be overall a more athletic group up front.
Wide receiver: A group tabbed as one of the best in the Pac-12 — and among the best in the nation — before the season started never quite lived up to that billing.
Strictly in terms of numbers, the Buffs are actually comparable to a year ago in the passing game. Last year, CU receivers and running backs combined for 289 catches in 14 games (20.6 receptions per game). This year, they have actually averaged more receptions per game (20.9) and the average per catch (12.7 yards) is slightly higher than 2016.
But for much of the season, the explosive plays have been missing. The Buffs have just six completions for at least 40 yards this season (15 last year), and didn't have one longer than 44 until the ninth game of the year.
It's not all the receivers' fault. As Montez struggled to find a "home" in the pocket early, it hindered the passing game. As he became more comfortable, the numbers improved. Still, the anticipated big jump in production never came. With one regular season game remaining, the only wideout to increase his production from 2016 is Bryce Bobo, who has 58 catches for 640 yards and five scores (44 for 548, 2 TDs last year).
There is, however, plenty of reason for optimism here. Junior Juwann Winfree, who missed 2016 with a knee injury, has come on strong down the stretch (5 catches for 163 yards and 2 TDs vs. USC). Freshman Laviska Shenault Jr. has shown a definite big-play tendency, averaging 26.5 yards per catch, and freshman K.D. Nixon has also shown bursts. Meanwhile, coming back after a redshirt season will be senior Kabion Ento, who had a terrific spring, and Jay MacIntyre will return for his senior season.
We'll also throw tight ends and fullbacks into this mix. Sophomore Chris Bounds (6 catches, 83 yards, 2 TDs) will return as will promising freshman Jared Poplawski.
Quarterback: While he started just three games last year, Montez came into the season surrounded by some great expectations.
It hasn't been the big season some expected, but he has steadily improved and played well enough to win more often than not. He is currently a respectable sixth in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game (252.7) and fourth in touchdown passes (18). But he also has thrown nine interceptions (tied for third-most in the conference), including a pair that were returned for scores.
Montez struggled to stay in the pocket early, but improved in that regard. He also had a stretch of 172 straight passes without an interception.
Overall, CU's passing numbers are slightly better than last year. In 2016, CU averaged 254.5 yards per game in the air; this year the number is 266.4. Last year CU averaged 7.6 yards per pass attempt; this year 7.7.
The biggest issue has been consistency — again, something that can be attributed to a little bit of everything with the offense, from the line's struggles to the inability to hit the deep ball to dropped balls. But, Montez still showed terrific athleticism and an ability to throw downfield when given time, something that should continue to improve as he learns the nuances of playing at the Division I level.
This will be a hugely important offseason for Montez and the rest of the quarterbacks. It's quite likely that head coach Mike MacIntyre will open up the competition completely in the spring to include not only redshirt freshman Sam Noyer, but also true freshman Tyler Lytle, who has been impressive.
It means film study, weight room and conditioning will all play a major role in deciding who lines up behind center in the 2018 season opener. It will also make for a tremendously competitive spring ball session.
Running back: Of the 317 total carries thus far this season by a CU running back, 283 belong to Phillip Lindsay.
It has indeed been Lindsay's backfield, and the senior has delivered. He moved atop CU's career all-purpose yardage chart this year, is second in all-time rushing and is the first-ever Buffs running back to rush for at least 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons.
But there has been one curious anomaly this year with Lindsay. A year ago, Lindsay caught 53 passes for 493 yards. This year, he's been targeted much less often and in 11 games has just 22 catches for 244 yards.
Still, there's no doubt Lindsay has been a fan favorite and a great team leader — and he will be difficult to replace.
What we know for certain is that 2018 will provide wide-open competition. Those battling for the starting spot will include senior Donovan Lee (redshirt this year), sophomore Beau Bisharat (21 carries for 61 yards), junior Kyle Evans (just 2 carries this season after coming back from a hip injury) and true freshman Alex Fontenot (redshirt).
It will be interesting to see if the Buffs return to a running back-by-committee approach, or whether they can once again find a feature back who averages 20 to 25 carries per game.
Contact: Neill.Woelk@Colorado.edu
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